There's a political revolution underway in the United States of America as clearly indicated by Tuesday's election of Republican Scott Brown to the US Senate from very liberal Massachusetts. Brown's victory is stunning in itself but made more so in that he is taking over Ted Kennedy's seat, and he reportedly won the Democrat icon's home precinct in Hyannis.
Because of what's happening, I thought it was time to resurrect the ol' blog, which has been dormant for some time while I pursued other projects. I don't know if I'll be able to post as much as I used to, but when inspired, I'll come on here and share my thoughts.
One of the things that encouraged me to blog about politics again is that a lot of people are going to try to manipulate the revolution for their own ends. There will be a lot of misinformation out there. Hopefully I can help set things straight.
-- No question that Brown's victory is a repudiation of the health care bill being pushed through by President Obama and Congressional leaders, at all costs. But only in part.
-- Brown's victory reflects voter anger at Obama's presidency so far, both in what he's done (conservatives energized to vote Tuesday) and not done (liberals who stayed home). Again, only in part.
-- Martha Coakley ran a lousy campaign. I have no idea, but she did lose in a Democrat stronghold, so there's some circumstantial evidence.
Here's the real story.
This GOP victory, combined with gubernatorial wins last year in New Jersey and Virginia, are not just part of a huge voter revulsion over the Obama presidency, but a continuation of a revolt against "politics as usual" that began months before the 2006 mid-term elections.
The stuff happening in the health care debate, the back-room deals, the hiding of details from public view, the out-and-out lies, has the public simply outraged. These types of things have always happened in Washington and always will, but the public perception is our so-called "leaders" are way out of control and need to be reined in. So that's what's taking place and it's the Democrats who happen to be in power right now, so they're taking the brunt. In 2006 and to some extent in 2008, the GOP was in power and voters couldn't wait to send them packing.
The public turned to congressional Democrats in 2006 and Obama in 2008 to get away from all the crap, to improve the level of debate, to be honest and open. The Dems and Obama campaigned like they were "change incarnate" and would govern in a way that would be appreciated by the electorate. Well, nothing changed. It arguably got worse.
So the revolution that started in 2006 has become a tidal wave, and angry voters are unwilling to differentiate between the parties. If you're guilty of lying and corruption, you're out.
I stated to several people late last year that in my several decades of following politics, I have never seen a riper time for a third party. I was not then, and still aren't, convinced the Republicans can reform themselves and become the party that takes over in DC and governs responsibly. I think voters, who only recently tossed them out on their elephant hind quarters, feel the same way. But if there were a third party with a platform of economic responsibility and strong national security, they would win a plurality in the House in November, win a majority of the available Senate seats in November, and in 2012 take control of Congress and the White House.
It hasn't happened yet. My prediction is that if the GOP falls short of retaking Congress in November, then there will be an effort made at forming such a third party.
I certainly can't predict what will happen in November at this point, there are just too many things going on.
-- Within the parties, the Democrat moderates and progressives are going to square off against each other following the Massachusetts debacle. Who knows what the outcome will be or what it will mean. Stay tuned. On the GOP side, you have the Tea Party activists taking on the moderates. Same question and remark. We'll see.
-- Advantage Democrats: we're coming out of the recession. Unless commercial real estate goes haywire, most voters will feel reasonably good about their position in life come November causing them to forget some of the more esoteric stuff. Anger over health care will dissipate if it doesn't pass. If it does, we certainly won't feel the damaging economic impacts for a couple years, so many people will head into November wondering what all the fuss was about.
-- Advantage Republicans: congressional math is in their favor, with a lot of Democrats representing districts that lean to the right. There are also some retiring Democrats. Americans didn't like George Bush very much in his last couple of years, but they fear Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. There's a powerful difference and it could prove critical.
The bottom line is that voter sentiment in our country has to be viewed over a broader context, but will of course be swayed by individual issues, as became clear in Massachusetts.
