One of the interesting facets of the too-early presidential campaign is that the importance of the early Iowa and New Hampshire primaries is about to be tested, particularly on the GOP side.
As something of a disclaimer, let me say that I keep on eye on the compendium of polls on the Web site realclearpolitics.com. I believe they provided an accurate picture of what was coming before the 2004 and 2006 elections. They take a variety of results from the major polls and put them together for an average result.
What the RCP average shows with the Republican field is that Rudy Giuliani leads nationally by more than 10 percent (as of this writing) but Mitt Romney has 9-plus point leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire. That's an oddly split result.
Going back to 2004, everyone on the Democratic side was talking up Howard Dean leading up to Iowa and John Kerry was an also-ran. Kerry won Iowa, took New Hampshire, and was suddenly annointed as "the man who could beat Bush."
With that as a historical lesson, what happens when Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire? Does he become "the man who could beat Hillary?"
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Just how much progress the U.S. military has made in Iraq as part of the surge is open to interpretation, but what there has been has come without help from the Iraqi government. The parliament has just fled Baghdad for a month long vacation, without ever approving anything. There's also been Sunni pullouts from the cabinet.
Meanwhile, our troops are killing bad guys, handing out toys to children (they go bonkers over puppets, for some reason), and building schools, but their own government does nothing to assist.
Among the biggest things we can do in the coming months is to make sure that the regular Iraqis on the street know how much they're being let down, so other people can get voted into office. And, strategically, we have to adjust our goals to not include a strong national government, because we're not going to get one.
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Geez, what to do about the stock market?
There's two answers. First, the one you hear a lot from the wise financial advisors: stay put, you can watch what happens on a day-to-day basis but acting hastily on the market's ups and downs can really mess up your portfolio.
Second, if you have the resources, this is the time to buy in. Buy low, sell high -- or buy low and hold. The fact is the economy right now is pretty strong, and we can eat the losses from these sub-prime mortgages. So while the stock market might take some temporary hits, it will go up in the long term.
That's why the smart investors buy good companies and don't look back.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
Barry Bonds and the Cheating Elite
Barry Bonds of the San Francisco Giants becoming baseball's all-time home run hitter this week brought a number of interesting reactions from fellow players, which illustrated a wide chasm in opinion between the athletes and most fans.
Bonds, of course, has been dogged for several years now by allegations that he has abused steroids or other performance-enhancing drugs. While he's never publicly tested positive for banned substances, the incredible increase in his physical size and strength in the late-1990s cannot be easily explained away. Plus, early in his career, his annual home run totals were in the 20s and 30s, which later evolved into consistent 40-plus homer seasons. The difference in his season-by-season home run statistics is not as dramatic as some would have you believe, but the increase coming in what would be the twilight of most careers is unusual.
Opposing players appeared to be matter-of-fact about Bonds when quoted after the record-breaking home run, or openly supportive. Arizona 2B Orlando Hudson applauded when he saw a highlight on the Chase Field video screen, Ryan Garko of the Indians said it was "sick" (good), and White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski said he was happy Bonds broke the record. Nary a negative comment could be heard.
Contrast that with the reaction of fans and the media. The people who watched Hudson's game in Phoenix booed, as did those in Denver. In San Diego, when Bonds tied the record last Saturday, there was much polite applause and a significant smattering of boos. The media has skewered Bonds for years, and a reporter actually asked him after he took a telephone call from President Bush whether Bush mentioned the federal investigation into a Bay Area lab (BALCO) that allegedly produced the performance enhancing substances.
No question, the players were being on their best behavior on a night that a cherished record was broken. Just about everything about the moment has been handled in a classy manner.
But there's a big difference in the way the players feel and the way the rest of us think. The players are all applauding a record. The rest of us are suspicious about the player who broke it.
Much of this is inside baseball, literally. Performance enhancing drugs has impacted other sports, most notably football, track and field, and bicycle racing. In those three other sports, however, so many of the participants do it that the competitive nature of the game is not altered to a significant degree. Baseball, however, is a much different game than it was in the 1970s and early-1980s, when pitching and speed were the key. The long ball has been king ever since, and in a lot of ways, the quality of the game has suffered. While it's not as bad as it was a few years ago, baseball fans have suffered through a lot of oafs who could hit the ball into the seats but couldn't make an accurate throw to the cutoff man or lay down a bunt.
Baseball players and management slough off the cheating allegations, but they're really symptomatic of a large problem facing society today, the willingness of many to cheat to get ahead. In a sense, baseball is no better than Enron or the GOP congress of that was tossed out in 2006. The ends justify the means. How we get ahead is not as important as how high we go. Meanwhile, civilization loses its sense of humanity and values.
What's crazy is we had no idea that anything was wrong with Enron until the scandal broke with sudden ferocity. The congressional scandals slowly unfolded and we only recently learned the true nature of Randy "Duke" Cunningham's corruption.
Baseball? We KNOW there's a problem. We've KNOWN of the problem for several years now. We all have our favorite suspects. Yet, we fans only express our disgust by booing Barry and grunting with co-workers at the water cooler. That's why baseball has moved at a glacial pace to fix the scandal within its game, and why the players and we the people have such divergent opinions on a cherished record that may, or may not, be tainted.
Bonds, of course, has been dogged for several years now by allegations that he has abused steroids or other performance-enhancing drugs. While he's never publicly tested positive for banned substances, the incredible increase in his physical size and strength in the late-1990s cannot be easily explained away. Plus, early in his career, his annual home run totals were in the 20s and 30s, which later evolved into consistent 40-plus homer seasons. The difference in his season-by-season home run statistics is not as dramatic as some would have you believe, but the increase coming in what would be the twilight of most careers is unusual.
Opposing players appeared to be matter-of-fact about Bonds when quoted after the record-breaking home run, or openly supportive. Arizona 2B Orlando Hudson applauded when he saw a highlight on the Chase Field video screen, Ryan Garko of the Indians said it was "sick" (good), and White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski said he was happy Bonds broke the record. Nary a negative comment could be heard.
Contrast that with the reaction of fans and the media. The people who watched Hudson's game in Phoenix booed, as did those in Denver. In San Diego, when Bonds tied the record last Saturday, there was much polite applause and a significant smattering of boos. The media has skewered Bonds for years, and a reporter actually asked him after he took a telephone call from President Bush whether Bush mentioned the federal investigation into a Bay Area lab (BALCO) that allegedly produced the performance enhancing substances.
No question, the players were being on their best behavior on a night that a cherished record was broken. Just about everything about the moment has been handled in a classy manner.
But there's a big difference in the way the players feel and the way the rest of us think. The players are all applauding a record. The rest of us are suspicious about the player who broke it.
Much of this is inside baseball, literally. Performance enhancing drugs has impacted other sports, most notably football, track and field, and bicycle racing. In those three other sports, however, so many of the participants do it that the competitive nature of the game is not altered to a significant degree. Baseball, however, is a much different game than it was in the 1970s and early-1980s, when pitching and speed were the key. The long ball has been king ever since, and in a lot of ways, the quality of the game has suffered. While it's not as bad as it was a few years ago, baseball fans have suffered through a lot of oafs who could hit the ball into the seats but couldn't make an accurate throw to the cutoff man or lay down a bunt.
Baseball players and management slough off the cheating allegations, but they're really symptomatic of a large problem facing society today, the willingness of many to cheat to get ahead. In a sense, baseball is no better than Enron or the GOP congress of that was tossed out in 2006. The ends justify the means. How we get ahead is not as important as how high we go. Meanwhile, civilization loses its sense of humanity and values.
What's crazy is we had no idea that anything was wrong with Enron until the scandal broke with sudden ferocity. The congressional scandals slowly unfolded and we only recently learned the true nature of Randy "Duke" Cunningham's corruption.
Baseball? We KNOW there's a problem. We've KNOWN of the problem for several years now. We all have our favorite suspects. Yet, we fans only express our disgust by booing Barry and grunting with co-workers at the water cooler. That's why baseball has moved at a glacial pace to fix the scandal within its game, and why the players and we the people have such divergent opinions on a cherished record that may, or may not, be tainted.
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