All the debates over troop levels and withdrawal schedules, all the arguments over the veracity of statistics, the complaints about the lack of progress by the Iraqi government in any area, are just sideshows to what has now become absolute number one priority in our Iraq involvement: staying.
Remaining in Iraq and proving to al Qaeda, diehard Baathists, Iran, the Taliban and the world that our will to stand up to evil is for the long term -- and not subject to political expediency -- is the key to the eventual success of our policy.
The United States literally has to be the big kid on the block who sits down where he feels like it and refuses to get up for any reason whatsoever.
Simply staying put has so many strategic advantages that it boggles the mind that anyone is even asking for an immediate withdrawal.
First, while official Washington argues about winning or losing in Iraq, the fact is that we won years ago by removing Saddam Hussein from power and helping the Iraqis to hold several free elections. Remaining in Iraq in years since has simply kept our victory from being in vain. In that time, there have been no serious non-political threats to topple the elected Iraqi government, and no non-political chance that our armed forces would be kicked out of the country.
Meanwhile, as long as we've been there, we've managed to do some good with the surge. Our increased troop levels have allowed commanders to launch operations that have capitalized on improved relations with Sunni tribes in al Anbar province and other sections outside of Baghdad. Similar improvements in relations with Shiites are now in the offing.
Whether violence is up or down this month, or last month, compared to some other time might make for pretty charts to display to Congress, but means little to the effectiveness of our overall policy. That we are still there, holding up our victory, and getting important Iraqis to see things our way, means everything.
Second, Osama bin Laden has always told his followers that the United States would retreat if hurt a couple of times. After previous pullouts from Lebanon and Somalia, and a failure to follow through in the first Gulf War, bin Laden had every reason to believe this was the case. Even though a lot of Democrats and some Republicans have tried their best to bring the troops home, we have shown, instead, considerable staying power. We've withstood casualties, horrifying wounds, reversals in conditions on the ground and an Iraqi government that's unworthy of its people. And with every day we stay in Iraq, we prove bin Laden wrong to his followers, or potential future followers.
Third, while diplomacy is still the primary method of engaging Iran, keeping our troops next door maintains a certain amount of pressure. Up until recently, our difficulties in Iraq have been fun for them. But the tide might be slowly turning in our favor, albeit slowly, and over time our presence will be more uncomfortable for Iran than it will us.
Fourth, if we leave Iraq, we'll provide the Taliban and its supporters a reason to believe we will not stay much longer in Afghanistan, either.
Finally, the world has been waiting for us to fail in Iraq and go home with our heads between our tails. It has not happened. Since we invaded Iraq, more conservative governments have been elected to lead the nations that had been our biggest critics in the free world, France and Germany. Their leaders are, out of necessity, viewing the world our way, also. The world's less scrupulous leaders, from Iran to Syria to North Korea to Venezuela to, now, Russia, have also been waiting for us to fail. The longer we stay in Iraq, and the more the free world begins to fall in behind us, the less room those people will have to operate.
Therefore, we're going to stay in Iraq for years. That's just the way it is, no matter who wins the presidency in 2008. If Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or John Edwards win the presidency, by Jan. 20, 2009, they'll conveniently decide that the situation on the ground has improved to the point that there is no need to withdraw.
Now, all this does not mean that there will be no changes in troop levels. President Bush has already approved reductions to pre-surge levels by next summer. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has suggested the cuts might be deeper, if success continues. But we will continue to have a substantial military presence in Iraq for the forseeable future.
---
In many ways, al Qaeda in Iraq is its own worst enemy. While our military has consistently respected the Muslim observance of Ramadan, the terrorists have not, and have launched a series of attacks in an effort to re-establish its relevance -- without looking at the calendar. While regular Muslims are observing Ramadan, the radical Islamists -- the ones who impose their vision of their religion on everyone else -- are not.
