Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Obama Speech Reaction, Another Rate Cut

I don't have much to say about Barack Obama's speech on the topic of race in Philadelphia, but considering my comments on this blog about his candidacy this week, I feel a bit obligated to pass along my reaction.

At its best, Obama's speech is a reminder why everyone got so excited about him in the first place. It was an address of soaring oratory with a promise of improved racial unity. At its worst, it fails to answer what got him in trouble the past couple weeks. He tried to take us back to the good times of his candidacy. He made an effort to get us to forget what's transpired in the past two weeks.

The lasting effect could very well be that we like his promise of better times ahead but lament that he ended up being unfit for the presidency.

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Last week, it appeared that the Federal Reserve had figured out that dropping interest rates only offered short-term boosts to the economy at the cost of long-term damage from a weakened dollar.

Fast-forward to this week and the Fed Funds Rate is reduced by 3/4 point to its lowest level since 2004. Sure, the Dow Industrials skyrocket 420 points on the same day, but how long will that last? Will the stock market continue to climb the rest of the week? Will the Dow, a week from Friday, still be north of 12,390? We'll see. Recent history shows the odds are against it.

In fact, the price of a barrel of oil rose on news of the rate cut, which traders will probably use as an excuse to sell off their stock market shares. The oil prices dropped a bit Monday because of prospects of a slowing world economy.

Head spinning? Oh, yeah. I'm no economist, but it seems to me we have to treat the problem instead of the symptom.