Most of the after-action reports from the North Carolina and Indiana primaries claim that Barack Obama, with an overwhelming win in the first state and a near-upset in the second, has all but sewed up the Democratic nomination -- and I have to agree.
Completely unlike Pennsylvania, which went just the way everyone thought it would and failed to advance the campaign plotline, the voters in Tuesday's states moved the party nomination decisively toward Obama.
Not only was the 56-32 victory in North Carolina by the Illinois senator larger than expected, his 51-49 loss in Indiana -- a result in doubt by late ballot-counting in the Chicago suburbs -- was closer than anticipated.
Those are just numbers, though. The bigger story is that Democrats are not making Obama pay for his association with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright or other dubious Chicago political figures. Either they're okay with them, or they just don't see Hillary Clinton as an alternative for hope and change. What we'd expect to see under such conditions is Hillary closing the gap in North Carolina and winning Indiana by a wider margin. Neither happened.
That being the case, this race is over. Give her West Virginia and Kentucky and hand Oregon to Obama and be done with the primary campaign.
On to the general election, with McCain vs. Obama. If you'd offered me a bet last summer that this would be the match-up, first I'd have laughed at you and second I'd have accepted just about any wager. Good thing I don't gamble much.
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I've mentioned several times why Obama's troubles haven't hurt him so far, the main issue being the Rev. Wright. First, the lack of an alternative candidate. Second, that liberals in the Democratic party hear this stuff from college professors or friends all the time and either roll their eyes or agree with it.
Here's a third explanation: people don't necessarily understand the nature of the issue. Take a political cartoon the other day by Mike Lukovich of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. It showed a couple people looking at images of high gas prices, a falling dollar and a foreclosed home, while a suited elephant representing a Republican taps on their shoulders and says "Look, it's Rev. Wright!"
Well, fine, except that Wright himself isn't the problem. It's how Obama conducted himself once the pastor's statements received publicity. He acted just like a politician. It wasn't what we'd seen previously from someone promising change in the way our leaders do things.
What the Wright issue, and other problems, show is that Obama is a typical politician masking himself in change's clothing. It looks like it'll work enough to hold on in the primaries. Whether it works in the general election is questionable.
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Gas tax math: I thought that the idea of a summer federal gas tax holiday was a good idea to bring up for John McCain and Hillary Clinton, a way that they could show voters that they're trying to think outside the box and help struggling consumers. I'm not sure it's the best idea in the world.
Obama is pretty sure it's not a good idea. His claim is that for all the trouble it would cause, the average consumer would save just $25-30 over the three month period. However, assuming you pay 30 cents per gallon more than a few months ago, and figuring a once-a-week fill-up in an 18-gallon tank, the price increase means you'll shell out (sorry for the pun) an extra $70 for the 13-week summer season.
That amount is significant, but spread over three months, it won't break the middle class family budget. It's dinner for five at your average sit-down chain restaurant. So if saving $30 over 13 weeksisn't worth much, then forking over an extra $70 over the same period isn't really a political issue. You can't have it both ways.
Besides, the real beneficiaries aren't your 9-to-5 office workers who need to fill their tanks to get around. Those who will benefit are the small business guys who are hurting big time right now -- truckers, taxi drivers, deliverymen, etc. They need help as soon as they can get it, and the money they'll save this summer will be much more than $30.
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Kicking himself right now is John Edwards. If he'd held on in the campaign, his home state of North Carolina might have propelled him to front-runner status.
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I'm all for helping to alleviate the human suffering in Burma, but the price has to be regime change. Let's not tell the junta what this price is, since they obviously would not accept it, but I bet if some of the courageous nations in the world -- and their number is disappointingly few -- got together they could oust these dictators pretty easily and get these poor people back on the road to democracy.
Unfortunately, simple logistics and the vast scale of damage from the cyclone means that few of us will be able to help quickly. So we have to think long term. Besides the normal aid one delivers in emergencies, we should also deliver liberation. It's the best aid we could ever give them.
