Late Friday night, it appeared that Barack Obama had chosen Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden to be his vice-presidential candidate, and there was word that John McCain had settled on former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
If those reports are indeed true, and it will take a while before we really know the GOP choice, then McCain comes out ahead. While the VP candidate has little bearing on whether someone wins a presidential race, it could be significant this year. Recent polls show Obama and McCain neck-and-neck in a wide number of battleground states, including Colorado -- which the Democrats need -- and Virginia -- necessary for Republicans.
It could be that the VP choices only sway only one percent of voters. That could be enough this year.
While I don't have time for in-depth analysis on this post, it looks like the Obama camp has gone the safe route in picking Biden. While he adds nothing, he also costs nothing. Biden only gets his support from university academics and newspaper columnists who consider him an intellectual. It's safe to assume they're wrong. Most regular Americans have only heard his name and will not be impressed.
Obama wisely resisted the temptation to pick Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, probably figuring he's made nice enough with the Clinton camp so that he doesn't need a woman on the ticket. Sebelius, whose claim to fame is blaming President Bush for a deadly outbreak of tornadoes, would have been a disaster.
On the other hand, I think one of the other finalists, Indiana's Evan Bayh, might have helped Obama win the election. Biden will be cast as a moderate, and he's really not. Sebelius would have been cast as a moderate, and she's definitely not. Bayh is the real deal and could have helped in troublesome areas of the country like Ohio and Indiana -- which is slated to go McCain's direction.
As for Romney, the McCain campaign is taking the high-risk, high-reward tack. The primary season wound down last winter with the ex-Salt Lake City Olympics chief as clearly the best choice for president -- albeit in a horrible field -- but without question the worst campaigner (Gee! How can I market myself to people today?).
If McCain gets the Romney who clearly articulates the necessary solutions to our economic problems and reminds Americans of his Midas touch, then he'll be tough to beat. If he gets the smarmy Romney who is too slick by two-thirds, he'll be in trouble.
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I thought when I heard Biden's name come up as the choice that it opened McCain up to choose a a youngish, well-thought-of Republican woman. That person would be ... uh, uh, hmm. The GOP had some great female politicians back in the 1990s, but Elizabeth Dole, as the chief example, turned out to be pretty mediocre once in office.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Monday, August 11, 2008
Russia and Georgia, Olympics, Edwards, Polling
A new cold war between the West and Russia is unlikely despite the battles raging in the Republic of Georgia this week, unless there are some major diplomatic or military gaffes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is among the last of a dying breed, the old-line Soviet communists who dreamed of world domination. His claim to power is rooted in nationalism, which is powerful in electoral politics and Olympics-style athletics. As popular as Putin is among the "Russkies," his appeal is likely to collapse if he tries to launch a series of military ventures. The Russian people care about their country up to a point but I just don't see them following Putin into war. There are a lot of Russians with powerful fiefdoms that would be disrupted by conflict, and these are the guys with Putin's ear. They'll tell him when it's time to stop.
The biggest question is what the United States and other western nations should do. We know the answer to what they will do. Nothing. Russia has veto power on the U.N. Security Council. The so-called non-aligned nations will vote against any measure condemning Russia in the U.N. General Assembly. The Euro-weenies will not have the will to remove Russia from the G-8 or any similar body of world leadership over fear that Putin will cut off their supply of natural gas.
What should be done? First of all, President Bush should admit that he misjudged Putin when they met early in his first term and he called him someone he could work with. We need to reconfigure our relationship with Russia from naivete to wariness. Bush could go a long way toward paving such a new path for his successor, be it Obama or McCain. We should push the various world bodies on anti-Russia resolutions for, if nothing else, to get countries to consider the problem and declare on which side they stand.
As friendly as the Georgian government has been to us, we cannot and I'm sure will not respond militarily. The U.S. embassy is passing out cash to those who've suffered losses. That's fine. We could embark on a wide program of humanitarian aid.
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Too bad this isn't college football. Georgia would be favored by at least three touchdowns.
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The politics of the 2008 Olympic Games left me cold, with the International Olympic Committee acquiescing to China's unkept promises in the months leading up to the games. More out of disinterest than thoughts of a boycott, I didn't think I'd watch much of the action.
However, a friend set me straight in that the competition and the athletes have nothing to do with all that side stuff. The diver preparing for his twisting and turning drop into a pool of water, the sprinter setting his feet in the blocks and the archer slowing down his breathing and heartbeat before firing his arrow have nothing to do with politics.
I'm glad I heard that. I'm still not watching a whole lot, but more than I thought I would.
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If Websters ever decides to place a dictionary illustration beside the word "gall," it should be an image of John Edwards. That the guy cheated on his wife is bad enough, but to do it while she was recovering from cancer makes him a scumbag.
But that's not the worst of it. That John Edwards chose to run for president, knowing his affair was bound to become public knowledge is stupefying.
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The narrative of last week was why isn't Obama pulling away from McCain in the presidential campaign polls? The question was legitimate. The narrative this week should be why isn't McCain taking advantage of his opportunity and edging even closer? He appears to be stalling at 2-3 points behind in the popular vote, and is not making any significant gains in the electoral college.
Despite the many problems to date with the Democratic candidate and his campaign, he is still well on track to becoming the next president.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is among the last of a dying breed, the old-line Soviet communists who dreamed of world domination. His claim to power is rooted in nationalism, which is powerful in electoral politics and Olympics-style athletics. As popular as Putin is among the "Russkies," his appeal is likely to collapse if he tries to launch a series of military ventures. The Russian people care about their country up to a point but I just don't see them following Putin into war. There are a lot of Russians with powerful fiefdoms that would be disrupted by conflict, and these are the guys with Putin's ear. They'll tell him when it's time to stop.
The biggest question is what the United States and other western nations should do. We know the answer to what they will do. Nothing. Russia has veto power on the U.N. Security Council. The so-called non-aligned nations will vote against any measure condemning Russia in the U.N. General Assembly. The Euro-weenies will not have the will to remove Russia from the G-8 or any similar body of world leadership over fear that Putin will cut off their supply of natural gas.
What should be done? First of all, President Bush should admit that he misjudged Putin when they met early in his first term and he called him someone he could work with. We need to reconfigure our relationship with Russia from naivete to wariness. Bush could go a long way toward paving such a new path for his successor, be it Obama or McCain. We should push the various world bodies on anti-Russia resolutions for, if nothing else, to get countries to consider the problem and declare on which side they stand.
As friendly as the Georgian government has been to us, we cannot and I'm sure will not respond militarily. The U.S. embassy is passing out cash to those who've suffered losses. That's fine. We could embark on a wide program of humanitarian aid.
---
Too bad this isn't college football. Georgia would be favored by at least three touchdowns.
---
The politics of the 2008 Olympic Games left me cold, with the International Olympic Committee acquiescing to China's unkept promises in the months leading up to the games. More out of disinterest than thoughts of a boycott, I didn't think I'd watch much of the action.
However, a friend set me straight in that the competition and the athletes have nothing to do with all that side stuff. The diver preparing for his twisting and turning drop into a pool of water, the sprinter setting his feet in the blocks and the archer slowing down his breathing and heartbeat before firing his arrow have nothing to do with politics.
I'm glad I heard that. I'm still not watching a whole lot, but more than I thought I would.
---
If Websters ever decides to place a dictionary illustration beside the word "gall," it should be an image of John Edwards. That the guy cheated on his wife is bad enough, but to do it while she was recovering from cancer makes him a scumbag.
But that's not the worst of it. That John Edwards chose to run for president, knowing his affair was bound to become public knowledge is stupefying.
---
The narrative of last week was why isn't Obama pulling away from McCain in the presidential campaign polls? The question was legitimate. The narrative this week should be why isn't McCain taking advantage of his opportunity and edging even closer? He appears to be stalling at 2-3 points behind in the popular vote, and is not making any significant gains in the electoral college.
Despite the many problems to date with the Democratic candidate and his campaign, he is still well on track to becoming the next president.
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