Late Friday night, it appeared that Barack Obama had chosen Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden to be his vice-presidential candidate, and there was word that John McCain had settled on former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
If those reports are indeed true, and it will take a while before we really know the GOP choice, then McCain comes out ahead. While the VP candidate has little bearing on whether someone wins a presidential race, it could be significant this year. Recent polls show Obama and McCain neck-and-neck in a wide number of battleground states, including Colorado -- which the Democrats need -- and Virginia -- necessary for Republicans.
It could be that the VP choices only sway only one percent of voters. That could be enough this year.
While I don't have time for in-depth analysis on this post, it looks like the Obama camp has gone the safe route in picking Biden. While he adds nothing, he also costs nothing. Biden only gets his support from university academics and newspaper columnists who consider him an intellectual. It's safe to assume they're wrong. Most regular Americans have only heard his name and will not be impressed.
Obama wisely resisted the temptation to pick Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, probably figuring he's made nice enough with the Clinton camp so that he doesn't need a woman on the ticket. Sebelius, whose claim to fame is blaming President Bush for a deadly outbreak of tornadoes, would have been a disaster.
On the other hand, I think one of the other finalists, Indiana's Evan Bayh, might have helped Obama win the election. Biden will be cast as a moderate, and he's really not. Sebelius would have been cast as a moderate, and she's definitely not. Bayh is the real deal and could have helped in troublesome areas of the country like Ohio and Indiana -- which is slated to go McCain's direction.
As for Romney, the McCain campaign is taking the high-risk, high-reward tack. The primary season wound down last winter with the ex-Salt Lake City Olympics chief as clearly the best choice for president -- albeit in a horrible field -- but without question the worst campaigner (Gee! How can I market myself to people today?).
If McCain gets the Romney who clearly articulates the necessary solutions to our economic problems and reminds Americans of his Midas touch, then he'll be tough to beat. If he gets the smarmy Romney who is too slick by two-thirds, he'll be in trouble.
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I thought when I heard Biden's name come up as the choice that it opened McCain up to choose a a youngish, well-thought-of Republican woman. That person would be ... uh, uh, hmm. The GOP had some great female politicians back in the 1990s, but Elizabeth Dole, as the chief example, turned out to be pretty mediocre once in office.
