As mentioned last week, the choice of a vice president is a good way to judge how a campaign thinks things are going. Therefore, we get some clues from John McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running-mate.
First, polls are showing that while the race overall for president is very close, Barack Obama leads generally in the high single-digits among women. Yet his lead is substantially higher with women of color than white women, likely because of the Hillary factor. If the choice of Palin blunts Clinton's deliverance of support in Denver and brings him a few more disaffected white women, then McCain has a shot to win some close states.
Second, he probably feels he does not need to bring the risk of a Mitt Romney. As we stated last week, the former Massachusetts governor has an extravagantly successful track record, but he was a horrible campaigner who Democrats would have had a field day with. Romney also would have overshadowed the sometimes thin-skinned McCain.
Third, while Obama went off-track in his "change" message by picking 35-year Senate veteran Joe Biden as his running-mate, McCain wanted for once and for all to kill the "Bush's third term" attack of Democrats. Palin is a reformer who has angered a lot of the Alaska GOP rank-and-file. McCain, a maverick, felt he had to shore up his reformist credentials. That he did so with someone who is unknown is interesting.
Finally, I can't help but think of Dan Quayle. This might not be fair to Palin, but while Quayle was pretty smart, you could never get over the feeling that he was a lightweight brought in so he would not threaten George H.W. Bush. McCain ran such a risk with Romney. Whether Palin is a lightweight or the rising female GOP star I wondered about last week is questionable. I, nor few others, know her well enough.
That the vice presidential candidates of both parties came from non-battleground states with a combined 6 electoral votes is interesting.
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(Add Palin) After giving it some thought, I have mixed feelings about the pick. I love her record as a reformer. Alaska was a Republican machine, as we've seen with some indictments, until Palin came along and started to tear things down. Yeah, it's a little odd that McCain had to improve on his maverick credentials, but reform is desperately needed in DC. The more the merrier, I guess.
However, the experience issue is going to give pause to some voters. That old adage of being one heartbeat from the presidency will apply to her more than any Veep since George the Elder. I'm confident she can handle the role, as can Biden, but the odds of her playing a major role in running the country by the end of McCain's term are relatively high. The way she handles this is not by constantly trumpeting her being mayor and councilwoman of a small Anchorage suburb, but with day-in-day out competency on the campaign trail. An assured appearance, lack of gaffes and a handle on complex issues will serve her well. If not, she could doom her campaign.
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After a strong speech at Denver's Invesco Field, it'll be interesting to see what bounce Obama gets in the polls. He'll get some, but the Biden VP pick is going to hold him back some. Beware of Friday stories showing a big or small bounce. Wait until Monday, when the major polling firms have been able to sample people for a few days. Then we'll know whether the DNC was a success or not.
Then again, we go straight into the RNC now, which means McCain has a chance for a boost in the polls, too. By Monday, Sept. 8, we could very well be right back where we started.
