The hoopla of the conventions and poll bounces now over, the presidential campaigns now move into the hard work of the last two months of the campaign. With Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin running neck-and-neck, the candidates who are most able to outwork and outsmart the others will emerge victorious in November.
In a recent post, I cautioned to wait until the conventions were over to see where things stand between the candidates. Most national polling had Obama a couple of points ahead of McCain before the DNC. Now that the RNC is over and nearly a week has past since the GOP nominee made his acceptance speech, we're right back where we started, with McCain's bounce possibly fading some and the two candidates running in a statistical tie.
Now it's a matter of who can grind it out better than the other.
Here's a couple factors that could make a difference:
1. The two presidential debates and the vice-presidential debate might be the most-watched ever. Neither Obama nor McCain did well in formal debate settings in the primaries. McCain appears to do better in impromptu situations, which is why he wanted some informal town halls. Obama is marvelous in prepared situations. I suspect in the end it will be a wash, barring a major gaffe by other side.
2. Any world event that causes uncertainty is a plus for McCain, as his improvement of a couple points after Russia's invasion of Georgia demonstrates. Anything more like this could put the GOP nominee over the top. However, there's a real advantage for Obama in here. French President Sarkozy has had some mild success in his diplomatic efforts to settle the Russia-Georgia problem. If Sarkozy comes up with a dramatic breakthrough, Obama can point to it as proof that his strategy of diplomacy and engaging rivals is wiser than McCain's saber rattling.
3. Sarah Palin. Need we say more? Okay, just a little bit. Her speech at the RNC was a real kick and established her as a force in American politics. But can she grind? Will she still be funny day after day after day in taking on Democrats, or will she tire and appear shrewish? I think, especially in this election season, voters are willing to buy her as a vice president. The ultimate question, of course, is whether Americans can envision her as president. She'll be much closer to the White House than previous VPs because of McCain's age, despite his relatively good health.
4. The election will come down to battleground states, not the popular vote totals. Obama has most of the big electoral vote states in his camp, and the only traditional big Democrat state in question is Pennsylvania. McCain only has Texas as a big state, while big battlegrounds like Ohio, Florida and Virginia traditionally go for the GOP when Republicans win the presidency.
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McCain, by selecting Palin as his running-mate, effectively snatched the "change" mantle from Obama and actually has a record on which to set it. Palin resonates with Americans because she's the anti-Hillary. She's a regular person, a mother who didn't like the way things were being run and set out to make changes. Hillary, and thousands of others like her from both parties in Washington, D.C. and state capitals nationwide, is and are what we want change from. No more scheming politicians and lawyers who place their own ambitions and ideologies above the good of the country.
McCain really did get the change message and showed it by selecting this woman. Obama, to his detriment, showed by selecting Joe Biden that the only change he wants is one to extreme liberalism. He had his chance and fumbled the ball away. His hope now is that the anti-Republican tide will hold sway for another two months.
Politics as usual is over. Dead. Gone. We at home get it. McCain got it. Obama, the Washington elite and the national media have not gotten it. It'll be interesting to see if they get the message in November.
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I went to realclearpolitics.com and clicked around an interactive map for which direction I thought the various battleground states would go, and I ended up with a 269-269 tie, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives and, presumably, Obama.
