One of the little things I've always enjoyed around the new year has been an annual quiz put together by semi-retired New York Times columnist William Safire in which he would ask a question about national and world affairs, give four choices of what might occur in the upcoming year -- including one or two that were pretty funny -- and at the end reveal his own picks as predictions.
So, with apologies to the great writer who hates dangling participles like the one that begins this sentence, here's my own version of a look ahead at 2008. I'll group 12 issues together -- one for each month! -- and rate the chances of each scenario.
1. DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENT
a. Hillary Clinton squeaks out a win in Iowa, hangs on in New Hampshire and with opposition thus knocked out of the way, cruises to the nomination. 40 percent
b. Barack Obama edges Clinton in Iowa, giving him enough momentum to pull out a win in New Hampshire, but doesn't have enough organization or resources to consolidate his win in the next group of states and is swamped on Super Tuesday. Hillary goes on to the nomination but has to struggle to get there. 35 percent
c. Obama wins a much bigger-than-expected victory in Iowa, takes New Hampshire, and the dogs begin piling on Clinton. Testimony by indicted fundraiser Norman Hsu sinks Hillary's ship and Obama emerges as the winner. 15 percent
d. Hillary, watching her campaign go down in flames in mid-January, offers to divorce Bill in a last chance bid at the nomination. 10 percent
2. REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENT
a. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney split the first couple of states, but can't hold off Rudy Giuliani as the race goes on. Giuliani outlasts the other two in an otherwise unimpressive nomination victory. 35 percent
b. Romney wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, giving him enough of a boost in Michigan and some other succeeding states to be a player. Becomes front-runner with a Giuliani loss in Florida and goes on to the nomination. 30 percent
c. Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani each win enough states to split the vote, and the Republican National Convention decides the nomination with an old-fashioned smoke-filled room selection of a candidate. 25 percent
d. Huckabee teaches Giuliani, Romney and Fred Thompson how to play musical instruments, and they form a band. Thompson loves playing before a live audience instead of a camera, Romney bets they can make a killing with a concert tour and Giuliani is just in it for the groupies. 10 percent
3. GENERAL ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT
a. Giuliani faces Clinton and the media focuses on who handles a failing marriage the least badly. 10 percent
b. Romney takes on Obama and between Mitt's smarts and Barack's ability to inspire, they end up going into business together. 10 percent
c. Edwards challenges Huckabee and they produce a re-make of the movie "Rudy," which ain't about the former New York City mayor. 10 percent
d. Giuliani or Romney beat Clinton or Obama because the public just doesn't like Hillary and can't bring themselves to vote for someone as inexperienced as Barack. 70 percent
4. CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
a. The Democrats, thanks to a lackluster crop of GOP candidates, hold onto both chambers of Congress with majorities similar to what they currently enjoy. 50 percent
b. Republicans take advantage of a bumbling Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi to reclaim the Senate and pull the House to a deficit made workable with some moderate Democrats. 20 percent
c. Democrats, thanks to GOP retirements, expand their Senate majority (currently 50-48 with two independents) by four or five seats but lose significant ground in the House. 25 percent
d. Disgusted Americans throw the bums out and give the Libertarian Party a slight majority over the Greens. 5 percent
5. THE ISSUE OF THE CAMPAIGN
a. The economy, which continues to hum along but has enough problems like high oil prices and a soft real estate market for candidates to complain about. 60 percent
b. Iraq, which Republicans will tout as a great and hard-fought victory while Democrats claim to have never heard of the place -- unless things fall apart again. 20 percent
c. Health care, after a summertime outbreak of West Nile Virus. 15 percent
d. College football's Bowl Championship Series, after 11 teams claim a share of the national championship over the next week. 5 percent
6. TERRORISM
a. al-Qaeda hits the United States on our own soil in the early fall, throwing our election campaign into turmoil. 20 percent
b. Home grown terrorists strike in Europe, giving the GOP candidate a political boost that is only temporary. 70 percent
c. U.S. forces capture or kill Osama bin-Laden. 40 percent
d. al-Qaeda, looking for a disfunctional country in which to thrive, sets up its new headquarters in a Manhattan subway tunnel. 10 percent
(more than 100 percent since the scenarios are not mutually exclusive)
7. IRAQ
a. While a certain amount of violence and political opposition remain a perpetual part of the Iraq story, the successes gained by the surge hold through next year and allow the country's splintered political elements a chance to come together -- whether they take advantage of it or not. 40 percent
b. Extremist Shiites bomb one of their own holy sites in order to blame Sunni "Awakening Groups" and touch off a year of sectarian fighting. 30 percent
c. The Iraqi government, rendered untenable after losing militant Shiite support, falls, leading to elections that result in a more moderate prime minister and the beginning of reconciliation talks. 25 percent
d. The missing WMD is found in a hermetically sealed jar on the doorstep of the Damascus office of Funk & Wagnalls. 5 percent
8. IRAN
a. Mixed signals about the nuclear program continue to come out of Tehran and U.S. and European intelligence services. Iranian, western government officials and the United States talk until they're blue in the face with no resolution. 70 percent
b. Not wanting to leave the issue of Iranian nukes to his successor, President Bush orders an attack that, in conjunction with Israeli forces, leaves the nuclear facilities a smoking mess. The U.S. and Israel are condemned as bullies by the United Nations. 20 percent
c. The ruling Mullahs realize that President Ahmadinejad is an idiot, and he dies after "a sudden illness" in order to short-circuit a popular coup. 8 percent
d. With peace reigning next door, the Mullahs wake up one day next December to realize that 90 percent of their subjects are now living in Iraq. 2 percent
9. THE ECONOMY
a. The federal reserve sends mixed signals to markets and investors through most of the year, finally easing monetary policy under political pressure in the fall. Oil prices remain high, but don't go over $4 out of fear by the oil companies that it will result in Democrat election victories. 60 percent
b. Improvements in Iraq security and a lack of action in Iran results in a slow but sustained drop in worldwide oil prices, and with Citi and Bank of America pulling itself out of their mortgage goofs, the stock market surges to 15,000 by fall. 30 percent
c. Continued high oil prices, the mortgage crisis and deficit spending continue to drive the economy out of balance. Stocks drop under 11,000 by and unemployment climbs significantly for the first time in eons. 7 percent
d. In conjunction with each other, Russia cuts natural gas shipments to Europe, Iran cuts off oil shipments to Europe and Asia and Venezuela re-routes crude from the United States to new clients in South America. Resulting panic drives stocks under five figures and creates a new worldwide depression. 3 percent
10. SPORTS
a. Roger Clemens proves that he's been clean his entire career and Alex Rodriguez dispels similar rumors, while baseball Commissioner Bud Selig declares the steroid era over and much-ado-about nothing -- all while the Washington Nationals defeat the Kansas City Royals in the World Series. 1 percent
b. The New England Patriots reach the Super Bowl with an 18-0 record but, with his team up by four points with 10 seconds left, quarterback Tom Brady fumbles on a "kneel down" play. The ball is picked up and run in for the touchdown. The '72 Dolphins reach for the champagne again. 1 percent
c. Louisiana-Monroe goes 12-0 with a series of close college football victories, forcing BCS bowl committees to post armed guards outside the rooms where they gather to make their selections. 1 percent
d. The Patriots cruise to the Super Bowl title and a first-ever 19-0 record, nothing really happens about steroids in baseball despite a lot of pious blabbing, the Arizona Diamondbacks win the World Series, the Chinese Olympics are competed safely but are totally boring. 80 percent
11. MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT
a. Newspapers and magazines nationwide continue to contract in both product and staff and put more and more original content on the Internet, without having any sort of clue how to make money off the new medium. In the summer, unopened copies of the Sunday New York Times are blown off breakfast tables by ceiling fans. 99.9 percent
b. At a mid-year Beverly Hills cocktail party, a movie director describes his idea for a new anti-Iraq War film, is lovingly surrounded by a hundred fellow guests and toasted. The following Monday, he pitches his idea to the exact same people in their offices and is thrown out. 80 percent
c. Paris Hilton is photographed eating a double-cheeseburger and large fries at In'n'Out and the celeb-obsessed media speculate she has an eating disorder. Gets a condolence letter from Jennifer Love-Hewitt. Lindsay Lohan is spotted dancing with her father at a Manhattan nightclub. Britney Spears releases a heartfelt double-CD album sung with her real voice, resulting in critics calling her the female Bob Dylan. She appears in concert with wires stuck in her head. 0.00000000001 percent
d. The editors of Time magazine, unable to bring themselves to name as Person of the Year either the GOP president-elect, as is traditional in an election year, or Gen. David Petraeus, pick themselves for the award. 50 percent
12. THE UNEXPECTED
a. Robert Mugabe announces that Zimbabwe is pursuing nuclear weapons to defend the country against angry former land-owners. 10 percent
b. A very slight 2007 trend builds into a tidal wave in 2008 as millions of illegal immigrants head south for home seeking more positive economic conditions. 20 percent
c. The International Olympic Committee, citing smog and/or political repression, pulls the Summer Olympiad from China and gives it to Sydney. 15 percent
d. Israel and the Palestinians led by Mahmoud Abbas reach a peace agreement during the spring, giving room for the Israelis to put the squeeze on Hamas and Hezbollah during the summer. By this time next year, the world is almost completely at peace. 40 percent
Obviously, the unexpected is the most difficult to choose. Overall, though, I'm somewhat optimistic about the upcoming 12 months -- at least in that I'm not terribly worried about a terrorist attack at home, a reversal in Iraq or an economic collapse. All could happen, but the chances are against them. Of course, I also expect our officials who do nothing to continue doing nothing. If 2008 becomes, for most of us, the year in which nothing really bad happened, then it will be better than the alternative.
