Monday, April 7, 2008

Candidates Fail on Economy, Electric Vehicle Future

Maybe talk radio was right about Mitt Romney, after all. With the economy slowly edging toward recession and few national leaders making sense when discussing how to turn things around, it just could be that the former Massachusetts governor was the right candidate at the right time.

A political cartoon I saw this morning puts everything into perspective. In the background, in big block letters, it says "IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID!" In the foreground, a caricature of Barack Obama says "Is it hope?" A pant-suited Hillary Clinton asks "Is it experience?" And John McCain, with his arms drawn up slightly and fists clinched, wonders "Is it strength?"

It's a perfect illustration of our problem with Campaign 2008. None of the candidates who remain standing have a clue about how to fix the economy. Obama and Clinton want the government to spend more, as if we're not spending ourselves into oblivion already. McCain admits the economy is not his strong point, though he's cast himself as a deficit hawk in the past. His votes and statements demonstrate, however, that he really doesn't know how things work.

Romney has been a successful businessman who has turned around large and struggling enterprises. The Salt Lake City Olympics don't necessarily equate to the federal government, of course, but he more than those remaining would be best suited to tackle the problems of the day.

Hope, experience and strength are nice qualities, but economic smarts is what we need right now.

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Ever since renting a Toyota Prius for a day last year (see post of 8/21/07), I have been interested in the development of electric and/or hybrid vehicles. As I mentioned in my observations while driving the Prius, I would consider purchasing one if the price were to drop about $5,000. That hasn't happened and likely won't, and I have yet to purchase a new car.

A lot has happened in electric car research and development since August, though. Tesla, a Silicon Valley firm, has developed an all-electric roadster. Aptera, of Carlsbad, has gone one better by giving it's two-seater a gallon of gas in case the battery wears out. The Tesla looks like a regular sports car. The Aptera looks like a space vehicle.

Between hybrids and all-electric vehicles, we're getting closer to the day where we can leave our gas guzzlers in the garage. The Prius, Honda Civic hybrid and Chevrolet Malibu hybrid can all be had for $22,000 and up, more than competitive with most new cars. Perhaps the only reason why they're not flooding the market is that buying new cars is not economically sensible, yet people might be reluctant to purchase a used hybrid -- just because of unfamiliarity.

Incremental steps, but important ones, are being made. The next big step is for the prices to become economical. I'm not being cheap when I balk at a $22,000 Prius because I know I can get a gently used Camry for $8,000 to $10,000 less. The Tesla will initially sell for $98,000. The Aptera for $30,000.

Other challenges are ahead besides price.

People still like big, comfortable and powerful vehicles and they want to be able to drive them a long way. While Aptera has done a good job in keeping the customer cost comparatively reasonable, the general public won't go for a glorified Mars Rover. People want a car. Tesla made a car, but they could barely get the price under a hundred grand. There has to be some kind of meeting in the middle.

Range is also critical. People drive their cars to see grandma in another town, or they take them on vacation. As mentioned above, you'll need hotels and gas stations to install charging stations. A smart restaurant can have a charging station so someone can get juiced up while eating, and have the tab right there on his bill.

Plus, while we'll use less refined gas, we'll use more electricity. That opens a whole new set of challenges. In San Diego County, San Diego Gas & Electric has for several years now been trying to install a new major electrical transmission line to give the county its third hookup to the nationwide electrical grid. Ever-increasing demand is already quite close to what SDG&E receives from the grid, and will surpass available capacity in a few years. Rural area property-owner and those same environmentalists who want us to start using alternative energy (like electric cars) are fighting the utility tooth-and-nail. Add thousands of cars plugged in to power outlets and demand for electricity will go through the roof. Will there be enough power on a hot day of peak demand for air conditioners? Big question.

The next issues are for the owners. If you live in an older pre-electrical revolution home, as I do, then you might need a major upgrade before you can plug in a car -- on top of the microwave, refrigerator, big-screen television, computer and X-box. When I had an addition built for my 1950 house, we had to add circuits to the electrical box to handle the additional load.

If you're already green living at home, say you're using solar power for a lot of your electrical needs, will you have enough juice to power a car. Those who hate the SDG&E transmission line want us to use solar or wind energy, but there simply is not enough.

So while electric and hybrid vehicles are enticing, and getting closer to mass-produced reality, there's a lot that needs to be overcome.