Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Obama's Biggest Problem is McCain, not Wright

Barack Obama is working feverishly to undo the mostly self-inflicted damage caused by the comments of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, but events this week show that his bigger problem is John McCain. If Hillary Clinton somehow overcomes Obama's lead for the Democratic presidential nomination, McCain is shaping up to be a formidable opponent for her, too.

First, let's state the obvious. Hope and change. Obama was absolutely correct that more than anything else in this election year, Americans want someone who will change the political climate in Washington, D.C., thereby providing hope for the future. If Obama had been what he initially claimed to be, and hadn't totally screwed up the Wright mess, Michelle could be taking measurements in the White House for her interior designers.

Instead, the door has opened for others to take the hope and change mantle. The clueless Clinton campaign has been unable to take advantage of the opportunity. McCain, whether consciously grasping for the mantle or not, seems headed that direction this week with two major items.

1. He has come out in support of suspending the federal gasoline tax this summer. With the price of a gallon of gas closing in on $4 (and over now in San Francisco and Hawaii), drivers are being gouged for driving as much as they are for eating or getting health care.

The solutions being peddled around by our so-called "leaders" is to drill in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge or to stick it to the oil companies with more taxes. ANWR drilling won't help us now. Higher taxes for oil companies will mean even higher costs for us in the end, hurting us at the pump or as shareholders.

Suspending the federal gas tax helps us now, when we need it. We've all been socked by higher prices for basic necessities and, for some of us, lower income. The price of oil affects not only our driving, but the cost of the wide variety of products that use petroleum in manufacturing. Truckers are hurting terribly. Airlines are closing up shop. That's not big, bad business -- that's people losing jobs.

Now, I have no idea just how good or bad an idea it is to temporarily remove the tax. The bigger point for me is that the McCain campaign is willing to be creative in the issues it supports. Forget the old arguments. Here's a new solution. People who want change in our national leadership are going to give the Arizona senator a lot of credit. Clinton will receive some, too, for her support but I'm not sure how far "me, too" goes with her.

2. Speaking of change, the debate over health care reform has basically been between leaving things as is or edging toward nationalizing the system. Polls have shown, by sometimes overwhelming margins, that people want neither option. They want reform, but not socialized medicine.

So McCain goes out and proposes something almost entirely different. His plan is to disengage health insurance from your work and make it entirely private, like automobile insurance. You go find the best coverage you can at the best price. Again, he is daring to be different in an era when the voters are attracted to the unusual. His plan may not be the best in the world. It might be. But he's going to get credit from voters for proposing something that hasn't been part of the debate before.

McCain's strength, overall, is that he means what he says. Like it or not, and many Republicans have not over the years. Obama had that going for him, too, until his spring meltdown. If McCain keeps up what he's doing so far, it'll be Cindy whose in charge of redecorating the big house on Pennsylvania Ave.

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According to Rasmussen Reports, the polling firm, McCain's numbers have slipped a little bit in a projected November matchup with Clinton, and his favorable ratings are down a few points. It'll be interesting to see what the polls show in a week or so, after people have had a chance to digest the Arizona senator's newest proposals.

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No, I'm not happy that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again, this time to the lowest level since 2004. However, there is some word that this might be the last reduction to get the economy turned around, before Fed governors turn their sights on inflation.

As has happened just about every time the Fed cuts rates, the expected boost is overshadowed by reality. Today's reality was a report that the economy grew by just 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008. That's no recession -- technically -- but nothing to write home about, either. So stocks ended up falling instead of climbing.

Lowering interest rates has done far more to help Wall Street climb out of the housing mess than assist Main Street, which far more needs inflation relief. The sooner the Fed goes after inflation -- and there were two votes to leave interest rates alone -- the higher the value of the dollar will go, which will ease inflation.