With expectations among pundits that the Hillary Clinton campaign plans to go strongly negative on Barack Obama in the coming weeks, it's interesting to consider what might be the long-term effects of such a strategy. Namely, weakening Obama if he indeed ends up being the Democratic candidate.
If the destruction of Obama ends at South Carolina or even after Super Tuesday, probably no big deal. However, if Clinton remains a contender after the first week of February, then what could turn out to be an intra-party Armageddon might create long-lasting damage to the party's chances to reclaim the White House. If the public's perception of Obama of an inexperienced drug-user with Muslim roots, instead of a positively inspiring agent of change takes root, he'll have a very difficult time in November.
Clinton herself, if she scores a knockout blow and goes on to become the nominee, will fulfill her worst nightmare. She'll appear to be a shrew. The mother who demanded the children come out of the swimming pool.
Or worse, a racist shrew. The wife of "the first black president" who denies African-Americans a chance at the real first black president will not be greeted warmly by that segment of the U.S. population in the future. Racial politics is simple. Democrats have been able to count on around 85 percent of the black vote in presidential elections, often more. In this era of close races, they need the black vote in such numbers to win. If Clinton becomes the nominee and dashes heightened expectations of a black president, she will mathematically be unable to win in November.
The Republicans, with only Mike Huckabee able to capture a little of the public's imagination, need a break to hold onto the executive branch of government. This could be it.
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A new batch of weekend polls show Obama with double-digit leads over Clinton now in New Hampshire. The wave is growing both for him and against her.
The only recent national polling I've seen is from Rasmussen. Everyone else seems to be concentrating on Iowa and now New Hampshire. Interesting numbers here, as of Saturday. On the Democrat side, Clinton leads Obama nationally 36 percent to 25 percent, with John Edwards third at 23 percent. The lack of a significant boost for Obama is curious.
Since Iowa, the big ground-gainer has been Edwards. Obama has held steady around 24-25 percent in the Rasmussen national poll since mid-December. Edwards was at 17 percent going into Iowa. Clinton, as you might expect, has sunk 5 points since the caucuses.
For Republicans, that John McCain surge that pundits have been pushing for a month has come about. In early-December, the Arizona senator was mired at 8 percent. Now he's tied for the national lead with Mike Huckabee at 19 percent. Rudy Giuliani is at 17 percent, Mitt Romney at 15 percent and Fred Thompson at 13 percent.
Again, interesting. Giuliani is actually up a couple of points since Iowa. Huckabee's bounce was a couple of points, but his numbers are down from the low-20s in mid-December. Romney's and Thompson's numbers have been about the same since October.
Conclusions?
1. Edwards could be putting himself in position for another run at vice-president is his poll numbers stay reasonable. He's nowhere close to winning another upcoming state, so won't be able to capitalize on his slight rise. But there is a second prize that he was willing to take just four years ago.
2. For all that's gone on, Clinton is still preferred by Democrats nationwide, so even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, she's still a player.
3. Giuliani is still hanging around. For all the "Huckabooms" and "McCain surges," no one on the GOP field has surged past the 25 percent mark since he did so at the end of November.
4. The longer these races go, the better off the Republican electoral chances.
