Monday, January 14, 2008

Too Early For Conclusions

It's been kind of funny reading the conservative media with it's blasts of John McCain coming just weeks on the heels of similar criticisms of Mike Huckabee. The Arizona senator, of course, is being targeted because he won the most recent primary and is now in a strong position in the polls. The former Arkansas governor was the front-runner through the Iowa caucuses.

The common factor is that neither of the GOP presidential candidates hold traditional conservative positions on issues. You know the list if you've been paying attention: both are "soft" on illegal immigration and neither are in the business-friendly pro-growth economic end of the party. However, McCain does score big points on his support of Iraq and the overall war on terrorism, and Huckabee is solid on religious right social issues.

Moreover, both score with voters with their ability to get out and communicate without a script. McCain occasionally shows his age during debates and Huckabee is frequently out of his league in discussing foreign policy, but those weak points have been excused so far.

What the conservatives forget, however, is that IT'S EARLY!

So far, people have gone to the polls in three states: Iowa for a system that favors special interests, New Hampshire in a state that grows bluer every year and Wyoming, which no one cares about. There are still so many states to cast votes that looking for front-runners right now makes no sense. See me after Florida votes.

But their straight talk points the way. For whoever wants the nomination and maybe the presidency itself. People are tired of the political crap and the divisiveness between the parties. McCain's willingness to join his Democratic colleagues on immigration reform and campaign finance reform is seen as a positive, much more so than the negatives of amnesty and first-amendment rights giveaways. Huckabee has a similar record of working across the aisle in Little Rock.

In fact, most of the appeal of a Barack Obama candidacy for young Democrats and independents is a promised change in how business gets done in Washington. While the Republican primary battle is turning ideological in some ways, the Democrat race is becoming one of change vs protecting the old guard.

People are sick of the way the current national leadership is handling things. Obama's quest might not succeed. Hillary has too much organization. Barack has too little experience.

Republicans, though, have to see what's taking place. There's no reason why a conservative can't catch the same wave carrying McCain and Huckabee. Mitt Romney has finished second in two states, leads the delegate count and -- stand up and cheer -- was the Wyoming winner. Rudy Giuliani's big state strategy has yet to kick in, though the train might have left him behind. And Fred Thompson is still hanging around.

There's still a lot of voting to do.

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Here's something that might make conservatives re-think a McCain candidacy. A new Rasmussen poll has him leading Clinton in a hypothetical match-up 49-38 percent.

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Not convinced that it's early? The same polling firm has McCain as the GOP national leader at 23 percent on Monday. Some surge. Huckabee is at 20 percent, where he's been for a week. That's why it makes me laugh to hear the right-minded pundits going on and on about those two. No one has been supported by even a quarter of Republicans since Giuliani polled 27 percent on Nov. 30. He's now backed by just 11 percent.