Time for the real primary campaign to begin.
We're past the one-state-at-a-time stage of intense media attention at every stop and now on to a major state with Florida and Super Tuesday. This will show who has the message that can capture support from voters, who has the organization to spread himself or herself around the country and who has the money remaining to afford some crucial media buys.
On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are the clear front-runners. There are some that say South Carolina might be McCain's last hurrah because of his lack of support among conservatives, and that could be true.
However, polling shows he now leads in polling nationally by almost 10 points, and is ahead in Florida, California and Pennsylvania. If he can somehow convince enough conservatives that he'll get behind the Bush tax cuts and be tougher than before on border security, there may be no stopping him.
Romney has shown the best grasp of economic issues and could have the best chance of upholding the traditional Republican coalition. He's been second in two states, won one and came out ahead in two Western caucuses.
On the other hand, he needs to prove to voters that he's not a marketing campaign on legs, but a real man with tangible positions and values. He can't keep doing what he tried in New Hampshire, where he saw what worked for Barack Obama in Iowa and tried to sell a message of "change." Nor will he be able to continue what worked for him in Michigan, where he sold economic opportunity in a desperate state without explaining how he would accomplish any improvement in a state which missed the recent national boom years -- and a state that will still be controlled by the other party.
While South Carolina was the death knell for the candidacy of Rep. Duncan Hunter, it virtually ended chances of success for both Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Huckabee only looks to be a player in Florida. Thompson, nowhere.
The wildcard is Rudy Giuliani, whose "big state" strategy kicks in now with Florida. Probably too late, but we'll see.
On the Democrat side, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has gotten over Iowa and has double-digit leads in the upcoming states outside South Carolina, which holds it's Democrat primary a week after the GOP.
Clinton needs to avoid a major gaffe and get away from the racial bickering with the campaign of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. She could be in a position to cruise to the nomination after Super Tuesday.
The huge Hillary-swamping Obama Wave has not materialized, and by the looks of the polls, it doesn't look like it will happen. Obama won Iowa on the strength of party activists, and we said several times here that the preferences of the activists and extremists would be much different than what we wanted. That turned out to be true. How gullible they were to fall for a message of blind hope and meaningless change! An inspiring speaker, to be sure, but Obama has been unable to shake the image of a young man who has accomplished little in his life. He's trying to bypass middle management and go straight to CEO.
Barack Obama has put a human face on an entire generation's demand for instantaneous gratification. There's nothing he can do to overcome this flaw.
Now, he does get plenty of support, and for good reason. Number one, no one applauds the desire to change the way business is done in Washington, D.C., more than I. He has successfully tapped into a feeling that a large portion of Americans feel. Millions of voters would probably like nothing better than to support Obama, but can't because of his inexperience, unaccomplished record or doctrinaire liberalism. Folks also like that he could be the first black to be nominated for president, and he's not even making his race an issue.
Second, there's a significant anti-Hillary contingent within the Democrat party and the nation as a whole. Much of the way business is done in the nation's capital, and in politics, stems from her and President Clinton.
But wanting to support Obama and actually doing so are apparently two different things. He is said to have a strong nationwide organization and has picked up enough money to stay in the race. But it would be surprising if he's still competitive after Super Tuesday.
